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SANTA ANITAAs the winter racing at Santa Anita has been heating up, so has my daily selections and analysis sheet, capped off by a perfect day on Sunday, January 26. I nailed ALL EIGHT winners on top that day, capped off by a cold $11,700 Pick Six! While much of the focus in the 3-year-old division is at Gulfstream Park, the west coast contingent merits some respect as well. Champion Vindication’s road to the Derby remains unclear at this point, but you can be sure that trainer Bob Baffert is going to do his best to have his star ready. He recently announced a rider change to Jerry Bailey, despite the fact that Mike Smith guided Vindication to an undefeated season. Bailey was aboard for a workout on Jan 25, and will probably work the colt again when he flies out this weekend for riding engagements. Bailey also has the mount on Congaree, who has really come into his own as a possible superstar for 2003. Baffert attributes Congaree’s recent 3-race streak of impressive wins to the fact that he’s finally grown into his large frame, filling out and becoming more muscular with age. He’s also learned to relax off the pace, something he couldn’t do earlier in his career. Although Vindication is the focus of much of the media attention at Santa Anita, it’s Baffert’s Kafwain that could emerge as his real 3yo star. Despite being entered in the G2 San Vicente on Feb 1 as a ‘prep’ for two turn races later in the meet, Kafwain annihilated his opposition in spectacular the time of 1:21 flat. Baffert stated before the race that he was using it simply for ‘maintenance’, suggesting that the best of Kafwain is still to come. This $720,000 2yo purchase could still have a lot of growing to do, and given his already proven form in two turn routes, he could emerge as the west’s best Derby prospect. I’ll be doing an analysis off all of the major Derby contenders in my Triple Crown Scouting Reports. The first issue is due out Feb 14, to coincide with the first Kentucky Derby futures pool. At just $5, it’s a very worthwhile investment. Both Milwaukee Brew and Pleasantly Perfect made
their 2003 debuts while running 2nd and 3rd,
respectively, to Congaree in the G2 San Antonio on Feb
2. My belief is that neither one was fully cranked
up, as the Big Cap or the Dubai World Cup will be
their early season goals. Each ran a promising race,
and will be more effective when stretched to the
10-furlong distance of each of those races.
Speaking of the Santa Anita Handicap, 2000 Big Cap
winner General Challenge has been seen on track
working out for a return to the races after a long
absence. If nothing else, the now 7-year-old gelding
will spark some interest when he reappears in a race.
Laffit Pincay Jr. scored win number 9,500 last Wednesday aboard Saxony in the fifth race. The ageless wonder has shown no signs of slowing down, and, barring any serious injury, will almost certainly be able to reach 10,000 wins before he hangs it up. That’s mind boggling, and he said in an interview after win number 9,500 that as long as he’s still enjoying riding, he’ll keep going. He’s currently sitting third in the jockey standing, just 4 wins behind leader Pat Valenzuela. With Alex Solis and David Flores also right up there, the jockey’s race should be a good one to the end of the meet. The real surprise of the jockey colony might be Julie Krone, who was in sixth place as of this writing, with 17 wins. She continues to get her fair share of quality mounts, and is proving to be particularly adept from off the pace. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Jeff Mullins, Bruce Headley, and Mike Machowsky are trainers to follow closely and to back at this meet. They have indeed panned out, and I would add to that list Nick Hines, who has been sending out very ‘live’ runners at square prices. He and Julie Krone have become a particularly potent team. Ron McAnally also appears primed to hit a hot streak, having sent out several horses to run well without winning in the past few weeks. Those good efforts, several with layoff horses, should generate some wins when those horses run back. And, John Shirreffs is quietly having a big meet as he continues to slowly build a quality public stable after years of training privately. His first time starters bear respect, as he reminded us when he scored with General Jack at $18.60 on Sunday.
GULFSTREAM PARKLast year at this time most handicappers were wondering what the Magna Corporation had done with this majestic oasis of racing fans. The track that everyone counted on to brighten an otherwise gloomy winter of boring racing had itself turned into dark despair. The fields were short and uninteresting and many top stables had opted to forgo Gulfstream in favor of the Fairgrounds. Frank Stronach, the architect of the Magna empire preached patience and assured us that once the Palm Meadows training center was completed racing at Gulfstream would be back to normal. We’ll he appears to be right. As we enter the second month of racing here the fields have been packed and varied, the competition keen on every level, and the racing back to peak performance. Furthermore, unlike in years gone by when players could routinely toss out any runner who couldn’t contend for the lead, this year every running style has a legitimate shot. That includes from the inside out, on the lead or off the pace. While the outside post are at a disadvantage going two turns, that’s common at every track where runners lose ground around the first turn. And, like any other venue, there are days when one style may have a slight advantage, by and large this main surface has been as fair as anyone could ask or expect. That’s not only true of the main oval, but for the turf as well. Horses have been winning up front or from behind with victories being dictated more by the pace scenario then any other variable. If anything here is out of the norm thus far, it would be the trainer’s race and the jockey’s standings. Starting with the trainers, we see newcomer to Gulfstream Mark Shuman standing at the top with 26 wins for a hefty 35% win rate. Amazingly, next in line down the training standings is Hall of Famer Bill Mott with a mere 7 wins. More on that in a minute. Shuman has come to Florida with 60 horses all owned by Mike Gill who continues claiming at a sizzling rate. However, don’t be fooled into thinking it’s Shuman doing the conditioning. Mike Gill is the brains behind this outfit with Shuman being no more then a figurehead trainer. This is nothing new as Gill has used an assortment of trainers throughout the Mid-Atlantic over the years with Shuman being lucky enough to get the nod for Gulfstream. From a handicapping standpoint, it’s basically irrelevant anyway so long as the patterns remain the same. As for Mott, he has gotten off to a slow start but over the past two weeks has been picking up the pace and should be watched closely from this point to the end of March. Many of his runners are coming off lengthy layoffs and even through Mott excels off the shelf, many still need the benefit of real competition. In the jockey colony, although it may surprise some to see Eibar Coa and Cornilio Velasquez at the top of the standings, it doesn’t come as a shock to us. These guys have always been the best in southern Florida but are often overlooked when the big names come down. Now they’re just getting their due. We’d also watch for Edgar Prado to begin catching fire as he has been showing signs of life lately and is hell once getting on a roll.
FAIRGROUNDSMystery Giver, son of Dynaformer, who won the Fair Grounds Breeders Cup Hcp. for the second straight year on Saturday, has developed into one of the top turf runners in the country. Perhaps a cut below the very best, there are not many G-2 or G-3 runners who can handle him. His owners Team Block bred him in Illinois. Trainer Chris Block doesn’t like to travel in the winter, so Mystery Giver was placed in the care of Richie Scherer. When I first saw this colt at Arlington in 2001 the most noticeable thing about him was his disposition. Chris had difficulty training him because he does what he wants, when he wants to do it. Having met Dynaformer at Three Chimneys, it is easy to see where he got his disposition. His early races with Illinois breds were not too impressive, but he has matured into a professional racehorse. He devastated the field Saturday, covering the last three-eights in :35, no change. He relaxed behind a slow pace, and when Robby Albarado asked him to run he certainly did, looking strong after the race. I believe he would have been much closer in the Arlington Million had he not been placed on the lead, and he deserves another shot in a G-1 race. He is now being pointed for the Explosive Bid (G-2) at this same mile and one-eighth distance on March 23.
OAKLAWN PARKOaklawn began it’s meeting last Friday (My selections are available for the entire meeting). As expected and I noted in last weeks article, trainer Cole Norman started the meet off with bang, winning 5 races from 19 starters. The surprise was how well trainer Robert Klesaris did, scoring with 3 of his 7 starters. All 3 horses last raced in New York. I was not sure what to expect from these NY shippers as all three were either coming off layoffs, taking sharp drops or were off form. Klesaris had them ready and well spotted. Unfortunaly for Klesaris 4 of his runners were claimed. Oaklawn is known for trainers to reach in and take plenty of horses during the meet because of the wide variety of dirt runners who ship in from all over. Big crowds and strong handle the first three days was a result of beautiful weather and very competitive racing cards.
RAMBLIN ON MY MINDI was totally out of it Saturday following the news of the Columbia tragedy. Horse racing became secondary for me as my eyes were riveted to the news channels all day long. The day went in slow motion, as I could not stop thinking of the seven brave and heroic men and women who took on the space shuttle challenge. God bless them all and their families and friends. Jerry Bailey who rode both Congaree and Medaglia d’oro to victory last weekend at Santa Anita could face a decision on who to ride if both are entered in the Santa Anita Handicap on March 1. The Big Cap is run at 1 ¼ miles. If I was Bailey I would opt for Medaglia d’Oro because he is proven at that distance. Congaree is probably the better horse right now up to 1 1/8 miles becaus e of his recent ability to rate kindly, but he has never own at the classic distance. If military involvement in the Persian Gulf does not escalate and war is delayed or put off, then it is possible that that trainer Bobby Frankel will opt for the Dubai World Cup, to be run in the Middle East on March 29. Empire Maker, the beautifully bred three year old trained by Frankel will make his first start of the year in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita this weekend. Empire Maker is coming off a third place finish in the Remson Stakes last November at Aqueduct. He was stepping up into Stakes Company following just a maiden win in his debut going a mile. Empire Maker ran well behind winner Toccet despite behind victimized by a strong speed bias. The Sham is at 1 1/8 miles, which is a perfect spot for his three year old, debut. Jerry Bailey will fly in for the ride. Berry Gordy, the creator of Motown music, had campaigned some very nice runners in the early 90’s such as Argument, Powis Castle and Alex The Great. Gordy dispersed his holdings in 1996. Gordy was seen at Santa Anita last Friday as part owner of Just Wonder who won his US debut in a one mile turf race. It’s nice to see Gordy back in the game. I have great admiration for this man and what he did to create some of the best music and musicians the world has ever known. Team Valor which is a very successful operation, recently had a set back with Added Edge who was knocked off the Derby trail when he injured a knee in the Holy Bull Stakes. Team Valor who owned Captain Bodgit, winner of the 1997 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and later lost a gut wrenching head decision to Silver Charm in the Kentucky Derby, recently purchased a half interest in a nice three year old colt named Colita. Colita just shipped to Gulfstream following an impressive allowance win at Aqueduct. Trained by Carlos Morales, Colita will be pointed to an allowance race on Feb 15 at Gulfstream and then possibly the Florida Derby on March 15. Watch this colt closely in his next start because I feel he could be an astute purchase by Team Valor. Trainer Mark Shuman and owner Mike Gill continue to dominate at Gulfstream Park. On Monday they sent out the razor sharp sprinter Boston Brat who equaled the 5-½ furlong track record. Just 17 days earlier Boston Brat established the 5-furlong record. Shuman trained horses are almost impossible to ignore this meeting, especially recent acquisitions. Another amazing claiming trainer is Peter Walder who won back-to-back races last Thursday. His win rate off the claim is outstanding. If you combine a 30 or more day freshening with his new purchases, his win rate soars even more. Walder is not quite as proficient winning with grass horses or first time starters, but that is not his specialty, as dirt claiming routers are his specialty. Never ignore Walder if you spot one of his horses that fit this profile. Just be warned ahead of time-do not expect more that 4-1 and most of the time 5-2 or less when he surfaces with this move. NOTE: I WAS INTERVIEWED BY HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE IN THE JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2003 EDITION. IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO READ THE INTERVIEW AND GAIN SOME INSIGHT TO MY CAREER AND MY THOUGHTS ON THE GAME, GO TO THE BRIS HOMEPAGE. THE INTERVIEW CAN BE FOUND IF YOU CLICK ON ANY WIZARD PRODUCT AND LOOK FOR THE LINK TOWARD THE TOP. ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE SELECTIONS, PP’S HOMEPAGE AND THE BRIS LIBRARY UNDER HANDICAPPING ARTICLES. LOOK FOR MY KENTUCKY DERBY SOCUTING REPORTS BEGINNING WITH ISSUE # 1 NEXT FRIDAY 14. THE FIRST ISSUE COINCIDES WITH THE KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER, ROUND 1 WHERE BETTING BEGINS FEB 13 AND ENDS FEB 16. I WILL GIVE YOU A SCOUTING REPORT ON THE HORSES THAT ARE LISTED AS WAGERS IN ROUND 1, INCLUDING UP TO DATE NEWS AND NOTES AND THE WIZARD’S ODDS LINE. A REAL BARGAIN AT $5.00.
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